ZKEA

Biological Warfare : Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases

Archived News
Week ending October 15th, 2005

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why the virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share some of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all of those changes.

In a joint statement, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "The new studies could have an immediate impact by helping scientist focus on detecting changes in the evolving H5N1 virus that might make widespread transmission among humans more likely."

The work also reveals that the 1918 virus is very different from ordinary human flu viruses...

President Bush says the possibility of an avian flu pandemic is among the reasons he wants Congress to give him the power to use the nation's military in law enforcement roles in the United States.

"I'm concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world," he told reporters during a Rose Garden news conference on Tuesday.

Such an event would raise difficult questions, such as how a quarantine might be enforced, he said.

"One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move," he said. "So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."

People who catch the worst strain of avian flu can die of viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress, according to mayoclinic.com. The disease has killed tens of millions of birds in Asia.

Last week, the U.N.'s health agency, the World Health Organization, sought to ease fears that the disease could kill as many as 150 million people worldwide.

"We're not going to know how lethal the next pandemic is going to be until the pandemic begins," WHO influenza spokesman Dick Thompson said, according to The Associated Press.

The consequences of an outbreak in the United States need to be addressed before catastrophe strikes, Bush said...

The Spanish flu virus that killed 50 million people in 1918-19 was probably a strain that originated in birds, research has shown. US scientists have found the 1918 virus shares genetic mutations with the bird flu virus now circulating in Asia.

Writing in Nature, they say their work underlines the threat the current strain poses to humans worldwide. A second paper in Science reveals another US team has successfully recreated the 1918 virus in mice.

The virus is contained at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under stringent safety conditions. It is hoped to carry out experiments to further understand the biological properties that made the virus so virulent.

The virus was recreated from data produced by painstaking research by a team from the US Armed Forces Institute of Pathology.

Working on virus samples from the remains of victims of the 1918 pandemic, the researchers were able to piece together the entire genetic sequence of the virus. They found the virus contained elements that were new to humans of the time - making it highly virulent.

And analysis of the final three pieces of the virus' genetic code has revealed mutations that have striking similarities to those found in flu viruses found only in birds, such as the H5N1 strain ...

A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official has warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks. "It's like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment," Dr Nabarro told the BBC. But the World Health Organisation has distanced itself from the figure.

The WHO spokesman on influenza, Dick Thompson, told a news conference in Geneva that the WHO's official estimate of the number of people who could die was between two million and 7.4 million.

"There is obvious confusion, and I think that has to be straightened out. I don't think you will hear Dr Nabarro say the same sort of thing again," Mr Thompson said. Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths.

"The range of deaths could be anything between 5m and 150m," the UN's new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said in his BBC interview...

Academy of Sciences in Beijing and colleagues sampled more than 400 bats of various species across China and found up to 70 percent of some species showed evidence of infection with SARS-like viruses.

This would support the idea that bats are the reservoir -- the natural host -- of the virus. Animals that act as reservoirs carry and spread a virus without themselves becoming ill.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome or SARS first emerged in China in 2002 and in 2003 spread around the world via jet, killing more than 700 people and infecting about 8,000. Strict quarantines and other measures stopped its spread.

It is caused by a new virus called SARS coronavirus. Coronaviruses are common in people and animals and usually cause nothing more serious than a cold.

Animals such as palm civets were found to be infected but study showed they were not the true reservoir of the SARS virus.

Earlier this month a team of Hong Kong researchers reported that bats found in Hong Kong carried a virus very similar to the SARS virus.

They said the horseshoe bats, used both as food and in Chinese medicine, should be handled with great care...

The dengue virus-carrying Aedes mosquito has adapted to urbanized human environments and traditional methods used in most Asian countries to control their breeding may no longer be as effective, a panel of experts meeting in Singapore said Saturday.

"It's a global pandemic," said Dr. Duane Gubler, director at the Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Diseases in Hawaii. "It's quite clear that the disease...has evolved. There just is more dengue in the world."

All across Asia, governments are scrambling to contain the virus, which is only carried by the Aedes mosquito.

Singapore has already recorded more than 11,000 cases this year alone, far more than the then-record of 9,459 set in 2004. Neighboring Malaysia meanwhile, has reported close to 28,000 human infections ┠more than 25 percent compared to a year ago.

Philippines and Thailand are also battling a rash of infections.

The world is no longer battling "a war with armies but a war with guerillas" in dealing with mosquitoes, said Dr. Paul Reiter, an infectious diseases expert from the Pasteur Institute in France.

Dengue is sometimes called bone-breaker's disease because it causes severe joint pain. Other symptoms include high fever, nausea, and a rash. In the worst cases it ..

So you heard about the bubonic plague-infected mice missing from a bio-terror research plant in Newark and now you're scared?

Don't be. Bubonic plague is not at the top of the government's list of worries. But you should be worried about anthrax and smallpox, designated by the Department of Health and Human Services as top threats to our national security, along with the dreaded Ebola virus.

So what does this mean from an investment standpoint? Billions of tax dollars are being spent to build up stockpiles of vaccines for counterterrorism.

"If there was an anthrax attack today, we would be about as well prepared as we were in New Orleans [for Hurricane Katrina,]" said Robert Leboyer, analyst for EKN.

Through Project Bioshield, the government plans to spend $5.6 billion through 2013 building up the Strategic National Stockpile. This includes $1.9 billion on vaccines for smallpox and $1.4 billion for anthrax. Also, hundreds of millions of dollars could be allocated for the development of an Ebola vaccine.

"Until recently, the vaccine business was kind of out of favor," said Sharon Seiler, analyst for Punk, Ziegel & Co. "I think it's bounced back with the contracts. People have renewed concerns about global pandemics."

Analysts expect the feds to award large contracts through 2007, followed by smaller contracts to maintain existing stock. The government is stockpiling vaccines without waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Administration, in order to get the latest advancements to the American population.

Glen Nowak, spokesman for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that vaccines expire within 18 months to two years, which is why the government has a "floating inventory" rather than a warehouse stuffed with a full supply...

The arrival of the deadly bird flu on Europe's doorstep after it killed dozens of people and caused huge economic damage in Asia has the scientific community divided over just how it got there.

Medical experts blame the scourge's spread on migratory birds but naturalists say the theory is nonsense and argue that the farming of chicken and ducks, amongst which the disease is most prevalent, is responsible.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) believe the H5N1 flu virus is spread by wild species, which carry the virus from infected areas and pass it to other flocks at stop-off points along their globe-crossing migratory routes.

"Birds play a role in the primary infection of the country, but then after that there's no need for wildlife. It will spread very easily from one village to another through trade," said Joseph Domenech, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation's chief vet.

"Given that it is a highly contagious disease, we were sure it could spread from one region to another, either through wildlife or through trade and movements of products. So this happened and we are not surprised at all."

The H5N1 variant of the disease has been known to scientists for decades as a latent killer within the world's bird populations.

However, it became a global concern when in Hong Kong in 1997 the strain first mutated into a form lethal to humans, killing six people.

The WHO warned that if the virus further mutated and was able to attach itself to viruses easily passed between humans -- like that which causes the common cold -- the world would face a global pandemic that could kill up to 100 million people...

Indonesia scrambled to calm public fears of a possible bird flu epidemic on Wednesday after two more children suspected of having the disease died in the capital of Jakarta.

If bird flu is confirmed as their cause of death, the country's human toll from the outbreak would climb to six.

The government - accused of responding slowly to the outbreak - announced plans for mass chicken culls in infected areas and fired the country's chief of animal health control for allegedly failing to check the disease's spread.

It assigned 44 state-owned hospitals to treat avian influenza patients and threatened to forcefully admit anyone showing symptoms of the disease, which include coughing, high fever and respiratory problems.

"If things worsen it could become an epidemic," Health Minister Siti Fadila Supari told The Associated Press.

Nine suspected bird flu cases have been admitted to Jakarta's infectious disease hospital, and authorities are awaiting lab test results for them and the girls, ages 2 and 5, who died Wednesday.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in large swaths of Asia since 2003, killing at least 63 people and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds...

Reluctance by poor Asian poultry farmers to report bird flu outbreaks is a weak link in the fight to prevent the deadly disease spreading and causing a human pandemic, the World Health Organization said on Monday.

"We need to realize that there is very little incentive for farmers to report suspected outbreaks," said Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO regional director for the Western Pacific, which covers 37 Asian and Pacific nations.

"In fact, fear that their flocks might be culled without compensation is a pretty strong disincentive to report an outbreak," said Omi at the opening of the WHO Western Pacific annual conference in Noumea, capital of New Caledonia in the South Pacific.

Millions of poultry have been culled in Asia, destroying the livelihood of many poor farmers, since bird flu was first reported in 2003 in southern China and Hong Kong.

WHO advocates mass culling when an outbreak occurs, but some countries do not go along. Indonesia, for instance, has launched a vaccination drive for poultry, but has carried out only limited culling because it lacks the money to compensate farmers.

WHO has warned that it is only a matter of time before the avian flu virus mutates and spreads between humans, becoming a pandemic which could kill tens of millions.

The H5N1 strain of the disease has already killed 64 people in four Asian countries and has spread to Russia and Europe.

The WHO conference of health ministers and officials from the 37 nations hopes to adopt an Asia-Pacific Strategy for Emerging Diseases, to fight not only avian flu but other existing and yet to emerge diseases...

A new, highly contagious and sometimes deadly canine flu is spreading in kennels and at dog tracks around the country, veterinarians said yesterday.

The virus, which scientists say mutated from an influenza strain that affects horses, has killed racing greyhounds in seven states and has been found in shelters and pet shops in many places, including the New York suburbs, though the extent of its spread is unknown.

Dr. Cynda Crawford, an immunologist at the University of Florida's College of Veterinary Medicine who is studying the virus, said that it spread most easily where dogs were housed together but that it could also be passed on the street, in dog runs or even by a human transferring it from one dog to another. Kennel workers have carried the virus home with them, she said.

How many dogs die from the virus is unclear, but scientists said the fatality rate is more than 1 percent and could be as high as 10 percent among puppies and older dogs.

Dr. Crawford first began investigating greyhound deaths in January 2004 at a racetrack in Jacksonville, Fla., where 8 of the 24 greyhounds who contracted the virus died.

"This is a newly emerging pathogen," she said, "and we have very little information to make predictions about it. But I think the fatality rate is between 1 and 10 percent."

She added that because dogs had no natural immunity to the virus, virtually every animal exposed would be infected. About 80 percent of dogs that are infected with the virus will develop symptoms, Dr. Crawford said. She added that the symptoms were often mistaken for "kennel cough," a common canine illness that is caused by the bordetella bronchiseptica bacteria.

Both diseases can cause coughing and gagging for up to three weeks, but dogs with canine flu may spike fevers as high as 106 degrees and have runny noses. A few will develop pneumonia, and some of those cases will be fatal. Antibiotics and fluid cut the pneumonia fatality rate, Dr. Crawford said.

The virus is an H3N8 flu closely related to an equine flu strain. It is not related to typical human flus or to the H5N1 avian flu that has killed about 100 people in Asia...

Millions of people could die around the world if bird flu spreads out of control, and most countries are totally unprepared for such an event, the UN's World Health Organisation says.

"If there was a flu pandemic tomorrow we would not be ready. The clock is ticking and when the pandemic strikes it will be too late," said WHO spokeswoman Christine McNab.

Despite warnings at the United Nations by US President George W. Bush and French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin calling for international cooperation to confront the "first pandemic of the 21st century", the international community was far from prepared.

"There is very good momentum, but a lot of work remains to be done," McNab said.

Of the 192 members of the UN just 40 countries had drawn up detailed plans for combatting an outbreak in humans of a mutation of the H5N1 virus which could, like the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, kill millions of people.

For the WHO it is question of when, not if, the virus crosses over to a strain affecting humans, experts said.

"The question is, 'When is it going to happen?' I don't think anybody has the answer to it... We have to be on the lookout for any time, any day," the WHO specialist on the virus, Margaret Chan, said in July.

The United Nations has called on its member states to make preparations with a document entitled "Responding to the avian influenza pandemic threat: recommended strategic actions."

Health professionals say an outbreak would appear in three phases:

- the prepandemic phase, that needs to be countered by a sophisticated warning system and information sharing so as to detect the first changes in the virus's behaviour;

- an "emerging phase";

- the "declared pandemic phase" when the virus rages unchecked across national borders.

"Since late 2003, the world has moved closer to a pandemic than any time since 1968..