ZKEA

Biological Warfare : Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases

Archived News
Week ending July 3rd, 2005

A team of international experts is in Vietnam studying whether the H5N1 bird flu virus could be evolving into a form that might trigger a human pandemic, the World Health Organization said Friday.

The team of virologists and epidemiologists was looking at "the possibility of more widespread H5N1 human transmission, changes in the H5N1 virus and the likelihood of increased human-to-human transmission," WHO said in a statement. "What has happened in Vietnam may have public health implications for the entire world and will be crucial in preparing for a possible pandemic," Hans Troedsson, WHO representative in Vietnam, was quoted as saying in the statement.

WHO officials in Hanoi were not immediately available for comment about details of the study in a country where the virus has killed 38 people.

Scientists have been tracking the evolution of the H5N1 virus, which is infectious in birds but does not spread easily among humans. Health experts fear the disease could mutate into a form that does spread easily among people, unleashing a pandemic...

Half a million Americans could die and more than 2 million could end up in the hospital with serious complications if an even moderately severe strain of a pandemic flu hits, a report predicted on Friday.

But the United States only has 965,256 staffed hospital beds, said the report from the Trust for America's Health. The non-profit group's state-by-state analysis adds to a growing clamor of voices contending that the United States is not prepared for a large outbreak of disease, whether natural or brought on by war or terrorism.

"This is not a drill. This is not a planning exercise. This is for real," said the Trust's executive director, Shelley Hearne, in a statement.

In an average year, influenza kills an estimated 36,000 Americans and puts 200,000 into the hospital.

A more serious strain strikes every few years and a so-called pandemic strain emerges once every 27 years, on average. The more virulent strains sweep around the world within months.

Pandemics hit in 1918 -- killing up to 40 million people globally -- 1957 and 1968. Health experts all say the world is overdue for another and fear the avian flu in Asia may be it.

The World Health Organization says an H5N1 avian flu pandemic could kill up to 7.4 million people globally, because people lack immunity to it. Avian flu has not yet acquired the ability to pass easily from person to person, but would spread rapidly if it does, experts say...