ZKEA

Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases : Biological Warfare

Government Reports

The following text is taken from the Atlantic Storm summary page. Interested readers are encouraged to visit the link above to view the latest information on this topic.

Atlantic Storm was a governmental table-top exercise convened on January 14, 2005 by the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, the Center for Transatlantic Relations of the Johns Hopkins University, and the Transatlantic Biosecurity Network. The exercise used a fictitious scenario designed to mimic a summit of transatlantic leaders forced to respond to a bioterrorist attack. These transatlantic leaders were played by current and former officials from each country or organization represented at the table. There was an audience of observers from governments on both sides of the Atlantic as well as from the private sector, but the venue was designed to focus all attention on the summit principals and their discussions around the table

The exercise was held in real-time using the world's current geopolitical context as a backdrop. Throughout the exercise, the summit principals received information in the format of briefings by the Summit Staff, periodic news videos from the lobal News Network,and personalized bulletins from their national advisors.

The exercise was designed to trigger intense discussions amongst the principals on a series of issues central to the international response to bioterrorism. While the epidemic caused by a bioterrorist attack would ultimately be a global crisis, the exercise focused on the transatlantic community since this region has a high potential for a successful, collaborative bioterrorism response. It contains both closely aligned nations (NATO and the EU), and a high concentration of resources essential for an effective response.

In the scenario, the transatlantic leaders had assembled for a long-planned Transatlantic Security Summit in Washington, DC. In attendance were the Presidents of the European Commission, France, and the United States, the Chancellor of Germany, the Prime Ministers of Canada, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and the Director-General of the World Health Organization. On January 13, the eve of the summit, smallpox cases were reported in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Turkey. The leaders decide to meet for a few hours on the 14th before heading home to deal with the emerging crisis.

During the six hour meeting, the transatlantic leaders wrestled with the enormity and rapid pace of the emerging epidemics of smallpox, the tension between domestic politics and international relations, the challenge of controlling the movement of people across borders, and an international shortage of critical medical resources such as smallpox vaccine.

The total number of reported smallpox cases rose throughout the day from 51 cases in four European countries at 9:00 am to 3,320 cases throughout Europe and North America just 4.5 hours later at 1:30 pm - with projections indicating the possibility of 660,000 cases worldwide within 30 days. Ultimately, the outbreaks were discovered to be the result of covert attacks on transportation hubs and centers of commerce in six cities: Istanbul, Rotterdam, Warsaw, Frankfurt, New York, and Los Angeles...

On 2223 June 2001, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, in collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Analytic Services Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, held a senior-level exercise entitled "Dark Winter" that simulated a covert smallpox attack on the United States. The first such exercise of its kind, Dark Winter was constructed to examine the challenges that senior-level policy makers would face if confronted with a bioterrorist attack that initiated outbreaks of highly contagious disease. The exercise was intended to increase awareness of the scope and character of the threat posed by biological weapons among senior national security experts and to bring about actions that would improve prevention and response strategies.

Of all potential biological weapons, smallpox is historically the most ominous and feared [57]. It is a disfiguring, communicable disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% [8, 9]. There is no effective medical treatment [9]. The World Health Assembly officially declared smallpox eradicated worldwide in 1980 [10]. Since its eradication, smallpox vaccination programs and vaccine production have ceased around the world [6]. The United States stopped its mandatory vaccination program in 1972. Thus, residents of the United Statesand indeed, the global populationare now highly susceptible to an inadvertent or deliberate release of smallpox.

It has been argued that the smallpox virus is the organism least accessible to potential bioterrorists. Since its eradication, the only officially existing stocks of the smallpox virus have been stored in 2 World Health Organization reference laboratories located in the United States and Russia [11]. Many experts believe, however, that the smallpox virus is not confined to these 2 official repositories and may be in the possession of states or subnational groups pursuing active biological weapons programs [12]. Of particular importance and concern is the legacy of the former Soviet Union's biological weapons program. It is widely known that the former Soviet Union maintained a stockpile of 20 tons of smallpox virus in its biological weapons arsenal throughout the 1970s, and that, by 1990, they had a plant capable of producing 80100 tons of smallpox per year [13]...

The New Defence Agenda (NDA) is a network of prominent experts drawn from government, politics and industry, brought together to provide policy guidance to the EU's defense needs. The NDA Bioterrorism Reporting Group is one element within this broader framework. This is their most recent report, dated October 18th, 2004.

40 representatives from national governments, industry and EU institutions gathered in Brussels on 18 October for the second meeting of the NDA Bioterrorism Reporting Group to review the increasing risks Europe faces, assess the adequacy of its current response mechanisms, and formulate recommendations to EU policymakers.

NDA Bio-Defence Consultant and Moderator for the event Jill Dekker-Bellamy opened the meeting by asking participants to bear in mind the central issues to frame their debate, such as vaccine stockpiling, harmonisation of alert-response systems, tracking the shipments of dangerous pathogens, enforcing international sanctions and coordination of national and EU-level policy in the fight against bioterrorist threats - including tighter cooperation between military and civilian authorities.

"The goal of this meeting is to present policy recommendations to the European Commission and EU member states," she said. "How do we balance the needs of science against its potential for abuse? Do we need more high-containment facilities, for example? Are the current ones adequate? Can EU member states agree on guidelines? And should these be voluntary or mandatory?

Noting that across the EU national vaccine norms range from stockpiles sufficient to inoculate only 3 percent of a population in one member state to 100 percent in another, Dekker warned of the ensuing chaos were a serious biological outbreak to strike the EU.

The recent public unrest in the United States over flu vaccine shortages should be a wake-up call to complacent governments on this side of the Atlantic," she said. "If the general public knew how inadequate the situation is, they would demand regulatory action...

A panel of life science experts convened for the Strategic Assessments Group noted:

The effects of some of these biological agents could be worse than any disease known to man..

The genomic revoluton is pushing biotechnology into an explosive growth phase. Panelists asserted that the resulting wave front of knowledge will evolve rapidly and be so broad, complex, and widely available to the public that traditional intelligence means for monitoring WMD development could prove inadequate to deal with the threat from these advanced biological weapons...

The same science that may cure some of our worst diseases could be used to create the world's most frightening weapons ...

This is the third unclassified report by the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future of our planet. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events.

As you might guess, this report is far-reaching, covering a wide variety of topics in a deep and often provocative manner. It is therefore well-worth reading in its entirety. For the specfic purposes of Zkea, however, we direct you to pages 95,96 and 100, where the threat of biological terrorism is discussed.

Terrorist use of biological agents is therefore likely, and the range of options will grow... the bioterrorist's laboratory could well be the size of a household kitchen, and the weapon built there could be smaller than a toaster... a nightmare scenario attack could be well under way before authorities would be cognizant of it... we expect to see terrorist use of some readily available biological and chemical weapons...