ZKEA

Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases : Biological Warfare

Dark Winter

Five lessons were learned from this exercise. First, a biological attack at this level would result in massive loss of life. Second, current governmental structures are not capable of managing such an attack. Third, U.S. health care infrastructure lacks a surge capability, thus leaving it open to complete failure in the event of mass casualties. Fourth, managing the media and providing citizens with the right information would be an enormous challenge. Fifth, Americans are totally unprepared for the myriad social, political and ethical challenges posed by this threat.

Perhaps a more elemental lesson was that people have an innate dread of plagues. It is therefore easy for a situation such as this to quickly degenerate into social breakdown and mob violence. Particularly with diseases such as smallpox, which are particularly ugly in their symptoms and virulence, it is a fine line between mass fear and total panic.

It is no accident that smallpox was chosen for this simulation. It is known that a number of nations have covert stocks. The old Soviet Union was particularly fond of this virus and weaponized it on an industrial mass scale. Always keen in improving their technology, the Soviet's developed smallpox strains resistant to vaccination as well as chimeric viruses resistant to just about anything that could be thrown at them. These viruses are now in the hands of a number of nations, including rogue states. Thus the Dark Winter scenario may in fact be much too rosy. What would have happened if the terror attack employed such a super-virus, rendering the all emergency vaccination and treatment programs ineffective?

Panic is one certain outcome, as is martial law. In fact, if a terrorist group wished to truly destroy an enemy, they could not choose a better weapon than smallpox or a smallpox analog. This is probably the reason why a number of terrorist groups have shown an interest in these types of weapons. The appeal is obvious. Such weapons are cheap, devastatingly effective and easily transported into the target country (a vial of virus could be smuggled inside of a writing pen). Given that tons of illegal drugs are successfully across international borders everyday, illicitly moving a vial of virus should present no great challenge. If you wished, for example, to move a container of smallpox from Latin America into the United States, the solution would be obvious: outsource it. Simply contact the local drug lord and arrange to have the smallpox transported in the next consignment of cocaine.

This simulation has been enormously influential in changing American attitudes and policies with regard to biological defense. Some of the key recommendations have been adopted by the Bush Administration. However, we remain woefully undefended and open to an attack of this sort.

Dark Winter is not science fiction - it is considered a real and present danger. Read the simulation yourself and consider how your family and your community would react in this situation. Are we prepared?

Link: Hopkins: The Dark Winter Simulation And Lessons Learned
Link: Dark Winter Summary And Links
Link: CNN: Dark Winter and lack of USA Preparedness
Link: Dark Winter Medical, Social And Political Lessons.