ZKEA

Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases : Biological Warfare

Proliferation

The skills for biological weapons are easy to find. A PhD in molecular biology aided by a group of competent technicians can put together a very effective doomsday weapon. And the raw materials are also pervasive. Chicken eggs aren't particularly rare. And bacterial growth medium - of the type used for anthrax, for example - is almost as widely available. In addition, the scientific literature necessary for weapons construction is largely open-sourced and available to anyone. Given the inherent "dual-use" nature of biotechnology, it is impossible for it to be otherwise.

Where else can one find such effectiveness at such low cost and ease of secrecy? For the dictator or cult leader concerned with concrete results and return-on-investment, there are indeed few better deals than biological weapons.

Consider the comparison of bioweapons to nuclear weapons. Nuclear bombs require extravagant capital outlays, hordes of trained scientists and engineers, topnotch research and engineering, and large installations that are effectively impossible to conceal. Given this, one can easily see why many states and groups are putting such energy into biological weapons. They are not simply the "poor-man's nuke". They are the ultimate weapon.

What are these bioweapons intended for? For one thing, such weapons serve as fearful threats against one's immediate neighbors. Man's fear of epidemic disease is ancient and elemental. Thus such weapons inspire dread in a way that conventional weapons cannot. In addition, they are extremely useful deterrents against more-powerful countries such as the United States. Given the United State's absolute military and political dominance, biological weapons offer an irresistible vehicle for leveling the strategic playing field. Finally, bioweapons are excellent for mounting an attack without getting the blame. By passing a biological weapon to a terrorist group and letting them do the dirty work of dispersion, for instance, a rogue country could theoretically accomplish its political goals without risk of counterattack.

Which small rogue states are building biological weapons? Perhaps the better question would be: which are not?

North Korea and Iran have robust programs. Iran's program is particularly interesting, in that it is being turbocharged by the recruitment of ex-Soviet scientists. Many other countries, including Syria, Cuba and Libya also have efforts of varying intensities and success. Libya has probably one of the weaker programs, but only because it failed in the 1990s to recruit scientists from South Africa's biowar program (including Dr. Wouter Basson, the head of that program). Cuba's program, in contrast, is particularly potent due to Cuba's indigenous capabilities in genetic engineering.

Iraq is a particularly educational case. It is known that Iraq had an active bioweapon program up until the mid 1990s. At that point - so Iraqi records show - the program was terminated and pathogens were destroyed. But who can be sure? A vial of deadly virus is easily concealed in a small container, which can in turn be stored inside of a conventional freezer. How would one ever "verify" that all such stores have been eliminated? The question is simply impossible to answer.

Iraq aside, this list is by no means complete. Countless other countries - and terrorist groups - doubtless have their own initiatives.

How can these programs and weapons be contained? There are treaties, of course, but these treaties suffer from a number of fatal flaws, including the critical one of enforcing compliance. Military preemption might succeed in some cases, but given the unique portability and lethality of biological agents this strategy is obviously extremely risky. Technology might be of help in the form of defensive vaccines and antidotes, but it is far from clear whether defensive measures could ever keep to the rapid pace of offensive innovations. Already, for example, rogue states have anthrax strains that are immune both to all known vaccines and antibiotics.

And so mankind faces a lethal conundrum. The ultimate weapon is spreading around the globe, falling into more and more hands. And for the first time in history, there is no corresponding defense.

Link: Detailed Summary of Iraq's Biological Weapons
Link: Iraq Infiltriated UK Germ Labs
Link: Can Saddam Strike Back?
Link: Cuba's Germ Warfare Program
Link: Summary of North Korea's Biological Weapons Program
Link: North Korea, others, believed to have smallpox
Link: Cuba's Biological Weapons? Testimony To United States Senate
Link: Iran's Biological Weapon's Program
Link: Camelpox as the next smallpox? (Camel, pox, camels, Iraq, Middle East)
Link: Iran Recruiting Russian Scientists for Bioweapons
Link: Bitter South African Germ Scientists Being Recruited By Rogue Nations