ZKEA

Biological Warfare : Biological Terrorism : Emerging Diseases

Attack Scenarios

Such an event could take myriad forms. However, in general these forms fall into one of three broad categories.

The first possibility is a large-scale aerosol attack involving the systematic dispersion of toxins, spores or complete microorganisms over an urban area. This might be accomplished by a plane or remote drone. Ground-based dispersion via a ground vehicle could also be effective. The pathogen would be suspended in a liquid media. A sprayer then distributes the pathogenic media into the atmosphere.

The sprayer would need to be specifically adapted so that the resulting particle sizes would be small enough to ensure proper dispersion. Simply put, most biological agents require that they be dispersed via extremely fine mists. Urban legend aside, sprayers suitable for insecticides don't meet this criteria - the pathogens would largely get lost inside of large droplets of water. On the other hand, it is not overly difficult for a good machine shop to make the required alterations. Given such a modified sprayer, a crop-duster would be an ideal attack vehicle for such an attack.

This explains the elemental dread that American intelligence felt when it was discovered that some Islamic terrorist cells had tried to acquire crop-dusters. Had the perps acquired a sudden interest in farming? Or was something a bit more urban being planned? Also, a number of regimes, including Iraq and Iran have recently put a great deal of work into drone aircraft. These drones are useless for delivering conventional explosives. Their only effective function would be to deliver either chemical or biological toxins.

The old Soviet Biopreparat program developed some much more sophisticated methods to deliver such an attack. In particular, the Soviets modified ICBM warheads with refrigeration equipment and special heat-venting fins. These allowed the warhead to re-enter the atmosphere without broiling its pathogenic cargo. Once near the target the warhead would then deploy a number of aerosol bomblets. These would float down via parachute to a pre-set altitude whereupon they would release their contents in a fine mist.

Given low-tech approaches work just as well, it's not likely that bio-ICBM's will be falling on our heads anytime soon. Even so, the fact that the Soviets devoted so much creativity and resources to this scenario illustrates how seriously they took this weapon. Indeed, the Soviets felt such a bio-warhead would probably be at least as deadly as an equivalent thermonuclear device. And certainly far cheaper.

No matter what system is employed in such an attack, certain conditions would have to exist for it to optimally succeed. Wind and overall meteorological conditions need to be right. For instance, rain would probably interfere with an attack. Bio-weapons generally prefer dry weather. Typically night would also be preferred, due to the increased cover and atmospheric stability. Under good conditions models indicate that a biological attack on Washington DC would result in 1-3 million deaths.

A number of agents are well-suited for such a scenario. Anthrax, due to the robustness of its spore form, is particularly appropriate to this method. Anthrax spores survive a variety of extreme conditions, do not degrade easily, and thus can be easily applied and distributed. But many other pathogens, including BT and tularemia would work well. No matter what pathogen was used an attack of this type could lead to a very high-number of cases, since large numbers of people would be exposed at roughly the same time. On the flip side, such an attack would probably be relatively localized to the targeted urban area.

The casualties from such an attack would come quickly. Very soon hospitals would be hit by flood of cases, swamping their ability to respond. Drugs would run out quickly. This lack of surge capability has been noted as a critical American weakness in various biological defense gaming exercises. It's likely there would be considerable panic as people try to flee the afflicted zone, further complicating relief efforts.

A second type of attack would mimic a naturally-occurring epidemic. Here a dispersed attack would rely on the natural communicability of a given pathogen. For example, smallpox could be released in a number of locations in a target country or countries and then spread outward naturally under its own power. This release could be accomplished in a variety of ways. If one has a sufficient number of fanatics on hand, for instance, these volunteers could simply be inoculated with the virus. In a few days these martyrs-to-be would be extremely infectious. Yet at this early stage they would still not show or feel the primary effects of the disease and thus would remain reasonably mobile. They could then be given plane tickets and told to "see the world". If causing a disastrous epidemic is your goal, there is nothing better than the enclosed cabin of a crowed passenger jet. The constantly circulating air and the close proximity of passengers ensures that everyone will have at least some exposure to the virus. After their flight the attackers could then walk around the airport for awhile, shake a few hands, and then board another flight to a new destination. Each attacker, even if he only takes a few flights to a few cities could infect thousands. And a cadre of such attackers could infect an unlimited number of people.

If the supply of willing martyrs is low, alternative approaches could be used. A number of different designs for smallpox aerosol bombs have been built and proven to be effective. Given the smallpox must be stored in cooled form, these aerosol weapons are a bit more difficult build than equivalent anthrax spore weapons. However, the required skills are hardly out of reach. A microbiologist, a competent engineer and an good machine-shop is enough to build such a weapon.

Smallpox is ideal for such an attack since it is extremely infectious. The virus spreads by air and under optimal conditions can reach as far as a hundred meters. In addition, anything that has touched a smallpox victim (such as blankets and clothing) is likewise infectious for a number of days. Even if the carrier is not visible the virus can still spread. In previous smallpox epidemics it was noted that the virus often spread via hospital ventilation shafts. Hospital patients or visitors who were hidden and quite far away from the smallpox patient thus contracted the disease.

Once the virus was successfully transmitted to a number of new carriers, the foundations of a disastrous epidemic would be set. Afflicted individuals would then naturally spread the disease further in an ever-widening spiral of infections. Given these individuals would be distributed very widely, and given their symptoms would be quite novel and thus easy to misdiagnose, there would be ample time for each of them in turn to infect many other people. Thus, by the time this attack was visible, it is likely there would already be millions of people infected throughout the country (and world). Simultaneous mass-epidemics would arise in countless cities. Hospitals would inundated, anywhere, everywhere. There would be no safe zones, nor a place to hide. No civil-defense health system is remotely capable of dealing with such a scenario. Therefore the result would likely be panic and societal breakdown on a truly epic scale.

Note that such an attack is much more fundamentally "terroristic" than the first scenario, for in this case there would be no logical limit to the spread of destruction. Such an attack could easily engulf the planet, wiping out countries far-removed from the original target. Thus it seems unlikely that any state - no matter how rogue - would choose such a method since the effects would boomerang back to attacking party. However, terrorists might not feel this to be a disadvantage. Especially if religiously-motivated, the apocalyptic nature of the inevitable result might have great appeal to them.

Lastly there is the third scenario. This would be an attack on the food or water supply. This would take the form of release of toxins or pathogens in agricultural zones or in reservoirs. Water-based attacks, while of some interest to terrorists, are in fact rather difficult to execute. In addition, most weaponized pathogens don't do well in water, although there are some exceptions. Food crops or herd animals are easier to attack and a number of pathogens target them.

Such an attack has some unique advantages. For one thing, it makes it possible to target very specific attributes (such as corn, or wheat), thus minimizing any boomerang effect back to the attacking party. For another, this allows the attacker to bring maximum economic pain to the target without inflicting disproportionate casualties. Lastly, such an attack is easily disguised and difficult to diagnosis. How could the target country be sure that this was not a natural crop epidemic, versus a biological attack?

For these reasons, the early American germ warfare program specialized in such agricultural weapons. Weaponized pathogens were developed and deployed that targeted virtually every food crop and livestock species in the world.

Even so, the agricultural-attack is probably the least likely scenario in today's world. Its greatest negative is that it takes time to develop and the effects (and thus the terror) are therefore greatly attenuated. From the terrorist standpoint, mass-death by starvation is much less desirable and glamorous than mass-death through some gruesome epidemic disease. However, such an attack still remains a possibility if initiated by more "civilized" states.

Lastly, it is also possible that advancing technology will allow unanticipated forms or means of attack, perhaps using newly-weaponized and particularly gruesome agents such as ebola. or new vehicles of dispersion. With a world changing so rapidly it is impossible to predict. The only surety is that this threat will continue to multiply into new forms.

Link: The Biology Of Airborne Attacks
Link: Dark Winter
Link: Dark Winter And Civil Defense
Link: Biological Armageddon Approaches
Link: Prepare For The Worst - Interview with Dr. Ken Alibek
Link: Agricultural Biological Warfare